Premier League champions Manchester City welcome title challengers Liverpool to the Etihad Stadium on Sunday for a blockbuster showdown that could have major implications in the title race.
Liverpool’s 2-2 draw with Aston Villa on Wednesday extended their lead over Arsenal to eight points, but with the Gunners playing West Ham on Saturday, that gap could shrink before the Reds take the pitch.
Meanwhile, Manchester City are still reeling from their 3-1 Champions League defeat to Real Madrid, which saw them crash out of the competition with a 6-3 aggregate loss. Despite an underwhelming season, Pep Guardiola will be eager to make a statement against Liverpool, as City battle for a top-four finish rather than the league title.
Let’s break down one of the most highly anticipated fixtures of the season, powered by Opta data.
Who’s Favored to Win?
According to the Opta Supercomputer, this match is almost too close to call:
- Manchester City win: 35% chance
- Liverpool win: 40.5% chance
- Draw: 24.5% chance
Liverpool will be looking to complete a Premier League double over City for the third time in history, having done so previously in 2005-06 and 2015-16.
The Reds have also completed the league double over the reigning champions on six occasions, the most in Premier League history:
- Blackburn Rovers (1995-96)
- Manchester United (2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09, 2013-14)
- Chelsea (2010-11)
Despite their title-favorite status, Liverpool will face a City side that has improved dramatically since Christmas. Over their last eight Premier League matches, only Liverpool and Arsenal have earned more points than Guardiola’s men (17 points – five wins, two draws, one loss).
Before that, in their previous eight league games, City managed just four points (one win, one draw, six defeats), highlighting a massive turnaround.
Can ‘Mini-Rodri’ Make a Difference?
Since Rodri suffered a season-ending knee injury in September, City have struggled to control midfield battles against top opponents.
- Between Rodri’s injury and last week’s 4-0 win over Newcastle, City played seven Premier League matches against top-eight teams, winning just once (W1, D1, L5).
- Last season, with Rodri in the starting lineup, City never lost to those same opponents (W6, D6, L0).
However, Guardiola may have found a temporary solution in Nico Gonzalez, who has been dubbed a “mini-Rodri.”
Key stats from Nico’s Premier League debut vs. Newcastle:
- 100 completed passes (second-most for a debuting midfielder since 2003-04)
- 30 passes in the final third (game-high)
- Most tackles (3) and duels won (4/5) among City players
- First time this season City didn’t concede a ‘big chance’ in a league game
Nico also impressed in City’s 3-1 loss to Real Madrid, scoring his first goal for the club while recording:
- Most touches (89) on the pitch
- Most accurate passes (71)
If City hope to disrupt Liverpool’s high-intensity midfield, Nico will need to shine at both ends of the pitch.
Are Liverpool Losing Their Edge?
Liverpool have been less convincing in recent weeks, with their 2-2 draw at Villa being their second draw in three matches.
- In their 2-1 win over Wolves, Liverpool failed to attempt a single shot in the second half while conceding 10—something they had never done before in the Premier League era (since 2003-04).
- They have had fewer shots than their opponents in four matches this season, and two of those instances have come in their last three games:
- vs. Wolves (10-16)
- vs. Everton (6-10)
Against Villa, Liverpool dominated the expected goals (xG) battle (2.51 vs. 0.67) but were wasteful in front of goal. Darwin Núñez received major criticism for missing a 0.75 xG chance in the dying minutes.
Another concern is the absence of Cody Gakpo, who limped off in the Merseyside Derby against Everton and remains doubtful for Sunday.
Gakpo has been one of Liverpool’s most productive players this season:
- 16 goals (2nd behind Mohamed Salah)
- 21 goal involvements (2nd behind Salah)
- 72 shots attempted (2nd behind Salah)
Regardless of Gakpo’s availability, Liverpool must improve both defensively and offensively at a stadium where they have only won once in their last 15 Premier League visits (4-1 in November 2015).
That said, the Reds have been exceptional away from home this season. Their draw against Villa made them just the sixth team in English top-flight history to remain unbeaten in their first 14 away matches of a campaign.
That resilience will be crucial against City.
Key Players to Watch
Manchester City – Omar Marmoush
The Egyptian forward will go head-to-head with his compatriot Mohamed Salah and will hope to replicate his performance against Newcastle, where he scored a hat-trick in just 33 minutes—the second-fastest treble ever by a City player in the Premier League (after Kevin De Bruyne’s 24-minute hat-trick vs. Wolves in 2022).
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has been involved in more Premier League goals against Guardiola’s Manchester City than any other player since 2016-17:
- 13 goal involvements (8 goals, 5 assists)
Only Steven Gerrard (14 – 4 goals, 10 assists) has been involved in more goals against City in Premier League history.
Final Thoughts
Both teams enter this match with something to prove.
- Liverpool need a win to maintain their lead over Arsenal.
- Manchester City must bounce back from their Champions League exit and keep their top-four ambitions alive.
Prediction: Manchester City 2-2 Liverpool
